Strategy test · volume

Does Volume confirmation work?

Whether volume backs the recent move. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 27 of the 46 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 2,813 times and worked 845 of them (30%). On average each trade kept +0.04R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
NFLX Netflix	+0.23R	33%	17	52
BTC Bitcoin	+0.23R	34%	31	92
NKE Nike	+0.22R	36%	20	55
AVAX Avalanche	+0.20R	36%	32	90
WMT Walmart	+0.20R	37%	17	46
SMCI Super Micro Computer	+0.18R	41%	25	61
SOL Solana	+0.18R	34%	34	101
ETH Ethereum	+0.17R	34%	33	98
INTC Intel	+0.16R	38%	20	53
AMC AMC Entertainment	+0.15R	36%	21	59
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	+0.15R	34%	22	65
LINK Chainlink	+0.11R	36%	38	106
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.11R	29%	12	41
AAPL Apple	+0.10R	35%	17	48
PYPL PayPal	+0.09R	24%	11	46
PLTR Palantir	+0.09R	34%	20	58
COST Costco	+0.07R	26%	12	47
HOOD Robinhood	+0.07R	29%	18	63
JPM JPMorgan Chase	+0.07R	32%	13	41
AVGO Broadcom	+0.04R	34%	19	56
XRP XRP	+0.04R	30%	29	96
F Ford	+0.03R	34%	17	50
DOGE Dogecoin	+0.03R	31%	29	95
RIVN Rivian	+0.03R	26%	18	70
BAC Bank of America	+0.02R	31%	16	51
AMD AMD	+0.02R	26%	13	50
MSFT Microsoft	0.00R	29%	14	48
SPY S&P 500 ETF	0.00R	27%	12	44
BA Boeing	0.00R	29%	18	63
AMZN Amazon	-0.02R	23%	10	44
ADA Cardano	-0.04R	29%	30	103
SOFI SoFi	-0.05R	27%	15	55
SNOW Snowflake	-0.06R	24%	15	63
UBER Uber	-0.06R	29%	14	48
DIS Disney	-0.06R	24%	11	45
CRWD CrowdStrike	-0.06R	26%	15	58
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	-0.07R	32%	14	44
LTC Litecoin	-0.07R	28%	25	88
KO Coca-Cola	-0.10R	23%	10	44
SHOP Shopify	-0.12R	25%	14	55
GME GameStop	-0.12R	24%	16	68
ARM Arm Holdings	-0.12R	24%	10	41
META Meta	-0.15R	23%	11	48
COIN Coinbase	-0.16R	25%	13	53
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.18R	25%	14	57
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.34R	19%	10	54

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other volume strategies

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.