Strategy test · volume

Does OBV divergence work?

Volume flow disagreeing with price. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 23 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 8,959 times and worked 2,420 of them (27%). On average each trade kept 0.00R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
RDDT Reddit	+0.22R	32%	35	111
HOOD Robinhood	+0.18R	36%	49	138
SMCI Super Micro Computer	+0.16R	38%	54	144
BAC Bank of America	+0.15R	33%	29	88
AMD AMD	+0.15R	35%	80	229
INTC Intel	+0.14R	35%	85	242
NFLX Netflix	+0.13R	32%	80	247
WMT Walmart	+0.13R	29%	42	143
JPM JPMorgan Chase	+0.12R	34%	52	154
AVAX Avalanche	+0.12R	30%	26	86
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.11R	34%	35	103
BA Boeing	+0.10R	32%	83	256
SOL Solana	+0.07R	27%	85	313
XRP XRP	+0.07R	26%	79	300
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	+0.06R	31%	60	195
NKE Nike	+0.04R	31%	61	199
COIN Coinbase	+0.02R	29%	82	284
CRWD CrowdStrike	+0.01R	31%	62	200
LTC Litecoin	+0.01R	26%	75	289
SOFI SoFi	0.00R	28%	68	239
AMC AMC Entertainment	0.00R	22%	57	255
SNOW Snowflake	0.00R	24%	53	225
AAPL Apple	0.00R	27%	51	192
PYPL PayPal	0.00R	21%	12	56
MSFT Microsoft	-0.01R	26%	67	259
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.01R	26%	49	187
RIVN Rivian	-0.01R	25%	72	289
DIS Disney	-0.02R	24%	26	107
ADA Cardano	-0.02R	24%	51	210
LINK Chainlink	-0.03R	25%	78	317
BTC Bitcoin	-0.03R	25%	67	269
PLTR Palantir	-0.03R	25%	38	151
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	-0.04R	27%	54	197
AMZN Amazon	-0.05R	24%	53	220
ETH Ethereum	-0.05R	23%	40	177
ARM Arm Holdings	-0.07R	28%	15	54
SPY S&P 500 ETF	-0.08R	23%	39	166
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.09R	21%	30	145
KO Coca-Cola	-0.10R	25%	23	91
UBER Uber	-0.10R	25%	56	227
META Meta	-0.12R	26%	64	250
COST Costco	-0.13R	22%	35	159
AVGO Broadcom	-0.14R	25%	36	142
TSLA Tesla	-0.15R	25%	34	134
F Ford	-0.16R	19%	31	159
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.17R	20%	38	187
SHOP Shopify	-0.20R	19%	22	116
GME GameStop	-0.28R	12%	7	58

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.