Strategy test · volume

Does Accumulation trend work?

Slope of the accumulation/distribution line. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 29 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 16,978 times and worked 4,553 of them (27%). On average each trade lost -0.01R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	+0.12R	32%	111	343
META Meta	+0.11R	33%	111	333
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.07R	34%	102	299
MSFT Microsoft	+0.07R	27%	88	329
BAC Bank of America	+0.06R	32%	109	341
F Ford	+0.06R	28%	95	336
COST Costco	+0.06R	28%	92	325
HOOD Robinhood	+0.05R	32%	105	331
PLTR Palantir	+0.04R	29%	91	317
NFLX Netflix	+0.04R	29%	96	328
TSLA Tesla	+0.04R	29%	94	319
SPY S&P 500 ETF	+0.04R	29%	93	319
SOFI SoFi	+0.03R	30%	99	333
AMC AMC Entertainment	+0.03R	24%	75	317
GME GameStop	+0.03R	24%	79	327
ARM Arm Holdings	+0.03R	30%	55	183
SOL Solana	+0.03R	26%	131	502
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	+0.02R	30%	95	314
AMD AMD	+0.02R	29%	93	323
KO Coca-Cola	+0.02R	27%	91	332
JPM JPMorgan Chase	+0.02R	29%	95	327
RDDT Reddit	+0.02R	27%	39	144
AVAX Avalanche	+0.02R	24%	123	503
AVGO Broadcom	+0.02R	30%	100	329
PYPL PayPal	+0.01R	25%	79	321
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	+0.01R	28%	94	330
COIN Coinbase	+0.01R	26%	88	344
XRP XRP	0.00R	26%	125	479
CRWD CrowdStrike	0.00R	31%	100	326
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.01R	29%	97	339
BA Boeing	-0.02R	28%	96	337
SHOP Shopify	-0.02R	26%	87	338
SNOW Snowflake	-0.02R	25%	86	344
DIS Disney	-0.04R	26%	89	341
SMCI Super Micro Computer	-0.04R	29%	99	341
WMT Walmart	-0.04R	24%	81	331
BTC Bitcoin	-0.04R	22%	112	502
INTC Intel	-0.05R	27%	90	338
ETH Ethereum	-0.05R	24%	120	508
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.05R	24%	118	486
RIVN Rivian	-0.07R	23%	75	330
LINK Chainlink	-0.08R	24%	121	498
ADA Cardano	-0.08R	22%	109	489
AAPL Apple	-0.09R	26%	83	314
AMZN Amazon	-0.09R	24%	79	332
UBER Uber	-0.11R	24%	81	338
NKE Nike	-0.12R	21%	71	335
LTC Litecoin	-0.13R	23%	111	483

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other volume strategies

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.