Strategy test · volume

Does MFI extremes work?

Volume-weighted overbought and oversold. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 22 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 14,191 times and worked 3,850 of them (27%). On average each trade kept +0.01R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
SHOP Shopify	+0.22R	33%	89	271
INTC Intel	+0.20R	36%	100	275
F Ford	+0.15R	30%	79	265
NKE Nike	+0.13R	30%	81	267
PLTR Palantir	+0.13R	33%	91	274
PYPL PayPal	+0.13R	29%	79	270
AVGO Broadcom	+0.13R	33%	83	254
SNOW Snowflake	+0.09R	29%	77	267
UBER Uber	+0.09R	32%	88	274
BAC Bank of America	+0.08R	31%	83	268
META Meta	+0.08R	30%	85	280
COIN Coinbase	+0.07R	27%	76	285
ARM Arm Holdings	+0.07R	31%	49	159
RIVN Rivian	+0.06R	30%	84	283
TSLA Tesla	+0.05R	29%	80	273
GME GameStop	+0.04R	25%	69	281
RDDT Reddit	+0.03R	26%	31	119
BA Boeing	+0.03R	31%	82	263
AMC AMC Entertainment	+0.01R	24%	68	289
AMZN Amazon	+0.01R	27%	75	274
SOL Solana	+0.01R	25%	104	416
NFLX Netflix	0.00R	31%	89	289
LINK Chainlink	0.00R	23%	103	446
DIS Disney	0.00R	25%	71	282
SPY S&P 500 ETF	0.00R	29%	81	277
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.01R	28%	72	258
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.01R	29%	83	283
AAPL Apple	-0.01R	30%	83	281
LTC Litecoin	-0.02R	22%	88	406
WMT Walmart	-0.02R	28%	77	272
SOFI SoFi	-0.02R	28%	78	280
KO Coca-Cola	-0.03R	28%	75	270
NVDA NVIDIA	-0.03R	29%	77	264
COST Costco	-0.03R	28%	74	268
XRP XRP	-0.04R	22%	87	399
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.04R	23%	96	426
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	-0.04R	25%	68	271
MSFT Microsoft	-0.04R	26%	73	278
AVAX Avalanche	-0.05R	23%	94	414
ADA Cardano	-0.05R	23%	103	440
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	-0.05R	30%	81	272
SMCI Super Micro Computer	-0.05R	26%	69	270
BTC Bitcoin	-0.06R	24%	95	403
ETH Ethereum	-0.06R	24%	101	419
JPM JPMorgan Chase	-0.06R	25%	72	285
AMD AMD	-0.07R	22%	63	280
HOOD Robinhood	-0.11R	26%	72	272
CRWD CrowdStrike	-0.12R	26%	72	279

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other volume strategies

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.