Strategy test · mean reversion

Does Williams reversal work?

Williams %R extremes turning back inside. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 22 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 15,306 times and worked 4,094 of them (27%). On average each trade lost -0.01R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
SHOP Shopify	+0.18R	33%	96	295
INTC Intel	+0.18R	35%	101	285
RIVN Rivian	+0.15R	32%	96	298
AVGO Broadcom	+0.13R	33%	96	293
ARM Arm Holdings	+0.13R	32%	52	162
SMCI Super Micro Computer	+0.10R	31%	91	294
PYPL PayPal	+0.09R	31%	92	297
SOFI SoFi	+0.09R	32%	94	296
COIN Coinbase	+0.09R	28%	86	310
RDDT Reddit	+0.06R	24%	28	115
F Ford	+0.06R	29%	82	283
GME GameStop	+0.05R	25%	73	290
SNOW Snowflake	+0.04R	28%	85	301
PLTR Palantir	+0.03R	30%	92	307
NKE Nike	+0.03R	26%	78	298
TSLA Tesla	+0.02R	28%	83	294
NFLX Netflix	+0.01R	31%	96	313
HOOD Robinhood	+0.01R	29%	87	304
DIS Disney	0.00R	26%	80	302
XRP XRP	0.00R	23%	98	433
WMT Walmart	0.00R	28%	83	296
LTC Litecoin	0.00R	24%	105	441
LINK Chainlink	0.00R	25%	111	440
SPY S&P 500 ETF	0.00R	30%	92	306
AMC AMC Entertainment	0.00R	22%	66	298
CRWD CrowdStrike	-0.01R	31%	90	293
AMZN Amazon	-0.01R	25%	75	295
COST Costco	-0.01R	28%	80	288
BA Boeing	-0.02R	28%	81	294
META Meta	-0.02R	28%	86	304
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.02R	29%	87	302
KO Coca-Cola	-0.03R	28%	82	290
AAPL Apple	-0.04R	28%	84	295
UBER Uber	-0.04R	28%	81	294
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	-0.06R	28%	86	305
ETH Ethereum	-0.06R	24%	111	458
BAC Bank of America	-0.06R	27%	83	303
ADA Cardano	-0.08R	23%	106	459
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.08R	22%	95	435
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	-0.08R	23%	67	291
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.09R	25%	75	295
JPM JPMorgan Chase	-0.09R	25%	75	298
SOL Solana	-0.10R	22%	101	451
MSFT Microsoft	-0.10R	24%	72	300
BTC Bitcoin	-0.10R	22%	100	445
NVDA NVIDIA	-0.11R	26%	80	302
AMD AMD	-0.11R	22%	67	302
AVAX Avalanche	-0.16R	19%	87	456

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other mean reversion strategies

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.