Strategy test · mean reversion

Does RSI reversion work?

RSI and Bollinger %B extremes. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 25 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 15,401 times and worked 4,185 of them (27%). On average each trade kept +0.01R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
INTC Intel	+0.21R	37%	113	302
F Ford	+0.19R	33%	95	288
SHOP Shopify	+0.16R	31%	92	295
PYPL PayPal	+0.11R	30%	87	288
COIN Coinbase	+0.10R	28%	81	294
RIVN Rivian	+0.10R	30%	88	293
AVGO Broadcom	+0.09R	32%	95	301
NKE Nike	+0.09R	30%	88	296
PLTR Palantir	+0.09R	32%	96	299
SMCI Super Micro Computer	+0.07R	30%	90	305
RDDT Reddit	+0.06R	27%	33	123
BAC Bank of America	+0.05R	31%	95	302
SOFI SoFi	+0.05R	30%	90	298
GME GameStop	+0.05R	26%	74	282
SNOW Snowflake	+0.05R	28%	84	301
XRP XRP	+0.05R	24%	105	445
WMT Walmart	+0.05R	29%	87	297
LTC Litecoin	+0.04R	23%	101	430
ARM Arm Holdings	+0.03R	28%	44	159
DIS Disney	+0.03R	28%	84	304
TSLA Tesla	+0.02R	27%	80	291
UBER Uber	+0.02R	30%	85	285
KO Coca-Cola	0.00R	29%	86	300
SPY S&P 500 ETF	0.00R	30%	92	307
AMC AMC Entertainment	0.00R	24%	70	293
LINK Chainlink	0.00R	25%	112	450
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.01R	30%	91	308
HOOD Robinhood	-0.01R	29%	86	295
COST Costco	-0.01R	28%	81	294
AMZN Amazon	-0.01R	24%	72	296
BA Boeing	-0.02R	29%	87	305
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	-0.02R	25%	75	298
ETH Ethereum	-0.03R	25%	117	467
META Meta	-0.03R	27%	80	293
SOL Solana	-0.03R	24%	110	461
ADA Cardano	-0.04R	25%	113	449
AAPL Apple	-0.04R	27%	83	305
JPM JPMorgan Chase	-0.05R	26%	77	300
NVDA NVIDIA	-0.05R	29%	85	290
AMD AMD	-0.05R	24%	74	306
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	-0.06R	29%	87	305
BTC Bitcoin	-0.06R	24%	111	472
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.07R	22%	103	461
NFLX Netflix	-0.07R	28%	85	307
CRWD CrowdStrike	-0.07R	28%	84	299
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.08R	26%	76	296
MSFT Microsoft	-0.12R	24%	72	301
AVAX Avalanche	-0.13R	19%	89	465

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other mean reversion strategies

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.