Strategy test · mean reversion

Does Bollinger fade work?

Fade band tags when bands are wide. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 20 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 6,029 times and worked 1,562 of them (26%). On average each trade lost 0.00R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
F Ford	+0.27R	33%	38	114
AMZN Amazon	+0.21R	30%	30	100
SHOP Shopify	+0.18R	30%	33	109
AVGO Broadcom	+0.14R	32%	36	113
AAPL Apple	+0.12R	33%	41	123
LTC Litecoin	+0.10R	28%	45	163
ARM Arm Holdings	+0.09R	25%	15	61
SOFI SoFi	+0.08R	33%	34	104
RIVN Rivian	+0.06R	24%	28	115
PLTR Palantir	+0.06R	29%	40	137
TSLA Tesla	+0.05R	29%	33	114
RDDT Reddit	+0.05R	20%	9	44
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.04R	29%	34	116
NKE Nike	+0.04R	32%	36	114
INTC Intel	+0.03R	30%	33	111
XRP XRP	+0.02R	24%	39	164
PYPL PayPal	+0.02R	23%	27	116
LINK Chainlink	+0.02R	25%	43	172
ADA Cardano	+0.01R	25%	42	166
AMC AMC Entertainment	0.00R	24%	29	120
SNOW Snowflake	0.00R	26%	29	112
COIN Coinbase	0.00R	23%	26	113
GME GameStop	-0.01R	24%	29	119
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	-0.01R	29%	35	122
AMD AMD	-0.01R	23%	29	126
NFLX Netflix	-0.01R	27%	36	132
META Meta	-0.02R	25%	29	117
UBER Uber	-0.02R	25%	28	110
CRWD CrowdStrike	-0.02R	30%	35	115
SPY S&P 500 ETF	-0.02R	27%	32	120
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.03R	23%	38	166
DIS Disney	-0.03R	26%	30	116
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.03R	26%	33	128
BAC Bank of America	-0.03R	24%	26	108
BTC Bitcoin	-0.04R	24%	41	171
COST Costco	-0.04R	27%	34	128
SMCI Super Micro Computer	-0.05R	25%	29	116
MSFT Microsoft	-0.05R	26%	31	118
SOL Solana	-0.05R	22%	40	179
ETH Ethereum	-0.06R	23%	43	183
BA Boeing	-0.07R	28%	37	134
AVAX Avalanche	-0.07R	21%	34	165
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.08R	24%	28	116
HOOD Robinhood	-0.08R	25%	30	118
JPM JPMorgan Chase	-0.09R	23%	31	132
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	-0.11R	22%	28	130
KO Coca-Cola	-0.14R	24%	31	128
WMT Walmart	-0.17R	19%	25	131

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other mean reversion strategies

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See what works on the stock you are looking at.

Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.