Strategy test · trend

Does Supertrend follow work?

ATR-banded trend follower with ratcheting stop. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 25 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 17,912 times and worked 4,803 of them (27%). On average each trade lost -0.01R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
NFLX Netflix	+0.22R	36%	123	345
AAPL Apple	+0.13R	33%	115	345
RDDT Reddit	+0.11R	30%	43	145
META Meta	+0.10R	33%	115	345
MSFT Microsoft	+0.09R	29%	99	345
BA Boeing	+0.09R	31%	107	345
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.09R	34%	117	345
KO Coca-Cola	+0.09R	28%	98	345
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	+0.08R	31%	106	345
HOOD Robinhood	+0.07R	32%	110	345
CRWD CrowdStrike	+0.07R	33%	113	345
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	+0.06R	31%	106	345
AVAX Avalanche	+0.06R	27%	146	535
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	+0.05R	30%	104	345
AVGO Broadcom	+0.05R	30%	105	345
COST Costco	+0.05R	29%	99	345
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	+0.04R	29%	100	345
ARM Arm Holdings	+0.04R	31%	58	189
SMCI Super Micro Computer	+0.03R	31%	107	345
SPY S&P 500 ETF	+0.03R	29%	100	345
AMC AMC Entertainment	+0.02R	23%	81	345
BAC Bank of America	+0.01R	30%	104	345
SNOW Snowflake	0.00R	26%	90	345
WMT Walmart	0.00R	26%	89	345
JPM JPMorgan Chase	0.00R	28%	95	345
TSLA Tesla	0.00R	30%	102	345
RIVN Rivian	0.00R	26%	88	343
SOFI SoFi	-0.01R	27%	94	345
AMD AMD	-0.02R	28%	98	345
DIS Disney	-0.02R	25%	87	345
PLTR Palantir	-0.02R	27%	92	345
AMZN Amazon	-0.04R	25%	85	345
COIN Coinbase	-0.04R	26%	88	345
SOL Solana	-0.05R	24%	127	535
ETH Ethereum	-0.05R	23%	122	535
PYPL PayPal	-0.05R	23%	81	345
XRP XRP	-0.06R	24%	127	535
LINK Chainlink	-0.06R	26%	138	535
SHOP Shopify	-0.06R	26%	88	345
NKE Nike	-0.06R	24%	82	345
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.07R	23%	123	535
LTC Litecoin	-0.09R	24%	130	535
ADA Cardano	-0.09R	21%	115	535
INTC Intel	-0.09R	26%	90	345
BTC Bitcoin	-0.14R	20%	109	535
GME GameStop	-0.16R	18%	61	345
F Ford	-0.17R	21%	71	345
UBER Uber	-0.19R	22%	75	345

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other trend strategies

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.