Strategy test · trend

Does Ichimoku cloud work?

Price against the forward-shifted cloud. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 19 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 17,912 times and worked 4,730 of them (26%). On average each trade lost -0.02R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
CRWD CrowdStrike	+0.14R	34%	118	345
AMC AMC Entertainment	+0.11R	24%	84	345
NFLX Netflix	+0.10R	32%	112	345
JPM JPMorgan Chase	+0.07R	30%	103	345
META Meta	+0.06R	32%	110	345
AAPL Apple	+0.06R	30%	105	345
MSFT Microsoft	+0.05R	28%	96	345
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	+0.05R	30%	104	345
HOOD Robinhood	+0.04R	30%	104	345
KO Coca-Cola	+0.04R	28%	95	345
AVAX Avalanche	+0.03R	26%	139	535
WMT Walmart	+0.03R	28%	95	345
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	+0.02R	30%	102	345
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.02R	32%	109	345
SHOP Shopify	+0.01R	28%	96	345
RDDT Reddit	+0.01R	26%	38	145
SNOW Snowflake	+0.01R	26%	90	345
ADA Cardano	0.00R	25%	132	535
AVGO Broadcom	0.00R	29%	101	345
COST Costco	0.00R	26%	90	345
F Ford	0.00R	26%	90	345
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.01R	27%	93	345
BAC Bank of America	-0.01R	29%	100	345
SPY S&P 500 ETF	-0.01R	27%	92	345
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.01R	24%	128	535
BA Boeing	-0.02R	28%	98	345
ETH Ethereum	-0.02R	24%	126	535
TSLA Tesla	-0.02R	30%	102	345
NKE Nike	-0.02R	26%	88	345
AMD AMD	-0.03R	29%	99	345
LINK Chainlink	-0.03R	27%	144	535
SOFI SoFi	-0.03R	27%	92	345
PLTR Palantir	-0.04R	26%	90	345
GME GameStop	-0.05R	20%	70	345
DIS Disney	-0.05R	24%	84	345
UBER Uber	-0.06R	26%	91	345
SMCI Super Micro Computer	-0.06R	27%	94	345
SOL Solana	-0.06R	24%	128	535
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	-0.06R	25%	87	345
INTC Intel	-0.07R	27%	94	345
AMZN Amazon	-0.08R	24%	84	345
BTC Bitcoin	-0.10R	21%	114	535
XRP XRP	-0.10R	22%	120	535
RIVN Rivian	-0.11R	22%	75	343
PYPL PayPal	-0.11R	22%	75	345
ARM Arm Holdings	-0.12R	25%	47	189
LTC Litecoin	-0.13R	23%	124	535
COIN Coinbase	-0.15R	23%	78	345

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.