Strategy test · structure

Does Market structure work?

Higher highs and higher lows, or the reverse. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 26 of the 48 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 17,912 times and worked 4,899 of them (27%). On average each trade lost 0.00R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
HOOD Robinhood	+0.15R	34%	117	345
KO Coca-Cola	+0.12R	30%	104	345
AVAX Avalanche	+0.10R	28%	150	535
ARM Arm Holdings	+0.09R	32%	61	189
NFLX Netflix	+0.09R	31%	107	345
COST Costco	+0.09R	30%	105	345
AMC AMC Entertainment	+0.08R	25%	87	345
JPM JPMorgan Chase	+0.08R	31%	106	345
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.07R	33%	114	345
SPY S&P 500 ETF	+0.07R	30%	104	345
MSFT Microsoft	+0.06R	29%	99	345
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	+0.06R	31%	107	345
BA Boeing	+0.05R	30%	103	345
CRWD CrowdStrike	+0.05R	32%	109	345
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	+0.05R	29%	101	345
AVGO Broadcom	+0.04R	31%	106	345
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	+0.04R	29%	101	345
AMD AMD	+0.04R	31%	107	345
AAPL Apple	+0.04R	31%	107	345
BAC Bank of America	+0.03R	30%	103	345
SOFI SoFi	+0.02R	28%	97	345
AMZN Amazon	+0.02R	27%	94	345
SMCI Super Micro Computer	+0.02R	30%	105	345
DIS Disney	+0.01R	28%	98	345
INTC Intel	+0.01R	30%	104	345
SOL Solana	0.00R	27%	144	535
WMT Walmart	0.00R	26%	90	345
PYPL PayPal	-0.01R	26%	88	345
F Ford	-0.01R	27%	93	345
META Meta	-0.01R	30%	104	345
GME GameStop	-0.01R	23%	80	345
DOGE Dogecoin	-0.02R	26%	139	535
RDDT Reddit	-0.02R	26%	38	145
SNOW Snowflake	-0.02R	26%	88	345
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	-0.03R	27%	92	345
TSLA Tesla	-0.04R	29%	101	345
LINK Chainlink	-0.04R	26%	140	535
NKE Nike	-0.05R	26%	88	345
RIVN Rivian	-0.06R	24%	81	343
ETH Ethereum	-0.07R	23%	122	535
ADA Cardano	-0.07R	24%	130	535
PLTR Palantir	-0.08R	24%	83	345
COIN Coinbase	-0.09R	25%	86	345
BTC Bitcoin	-0.10R	23%	121	535
SHOP Shopify	-0.12R	23%	81	345
LTC Litecoin	-0.13R	23%	122	535
XRP XRP	-0.14R	22%	120	535
UBER Uber	-0.19R	21%	72	345

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

Other structure strategies

all of them →

See what works on the stock you are looking at.

Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.