Strategy test · structure

Does Gap behaviour work?

Whether an opening gap holds or fills. Tested on every popular stock and coin, with real trading costs taken off.

The short answer

After costs, it kept money on 17 of the 39 stocks and coins we test.

It gave a signal 9,711 times and worked 2,671 of them (28%). On average each trade lost -0.01R.

Instrument	Kept a trade	Hit rate	Worked	Signals
BAC Bank of America	+0.16R	36%	94	264
MSFT Microsoft	+0.09R	29%	78	265
CRWD CrowdStrike	+0.08R	33%	82	252
META Meta	+0.08R	33%	87	260
TSLA Tesla	+0.08R	32%	86	273
JPM JPMorgan Chase	+0.06R	32%	79	248
RDDT Reddit	+0.06R	31%	33	108
F Ford	+0.05R	27%	66	244
COST Costco	+0.05R	29%	69	239
INTC Intel	+0.04R	30%	75	246
NVDA NVIDIA	+0.03R	32%	87	275
PLTR Palantir	+0.02R	27%	67	247
MSTR Strategy (MicroStrategy)	+0.02R	29%	77	268
AAPL Apple	+0.01R	28%	73	257
SNOW Snowflake	+0.01R	26%	65	251
RIVN Rivian	0.00R	26%	66	250
COIN Coinbase	0.00R	25%	69	274
NFLX Netflix	0.00R	29%	68	238
AMD AMD	-0.01R	28%	78	277
HOOD Robinhood	-0.01R	28%	74	264
PYPL PayPal	-0.02R	26%	64	248
SMCI Super Micro Computer	-0.02R	28%	72	258
AMZN Amazon	-0.03R	25%	67	269
BA Boeing	-0.03R	31%	74	239
KO Coca-Cola	-0.03R	26%	61	238
AVGO Broadcom	-0.03R	27%	72	269
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF	-0.03R	29%	77	267
WMT Walmart	-0.05R	27%	62	227
GOOGL Alphabet (Google)	-0.05R	28%	73	264
NKE Nike	-0.06R	24%	62	255
DIS Disney	-0.06R	24%	61	249
UBER Uber	-0.06R	26%	66	250
ARM Arm Holdings	-0.06R	27%	42	154
SPY S&P 500 ETF	-0.07R	27%	73	274
SHOP Shopify	-0.07R	25%	67	265
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF	-0.09R	25%	69	279
AMC AMC Entertainment	-0.10R	17%	37	217
GME GameStop	-0.11R	18%	41	226
SOFI SoFi	-0.14R	22%	58	263

How we tested

Up to 5 years of daily prices for each stock and coin.
Every time the strategy leaned up or down, we took a pretend trade that way. Stop 1.5 ATR away, target 2.25 ATR away, closed after 10 trading days if it hit neither. ATR is how much the price usually moves in a day.
Worked means it reached the target before the stop. If both were touched on the same day, we count it as a loss.
Costs come off every trade: 0.02% a round trip for stocks, 0.2% for crypto.
Kept a trade is in R, the amount risked. +0.10R means 10 cents kept for every dollar risked, on average, after costs.
Strategies that fired fewer than 40 times on a stock are left out: that few is luck.

Re-run every day. Past results do not promise future ones. This is software output, not financial advice.

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Orenth runs all 34 strategies on any stock or coin, and says so when none of them has an edge.

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Analysis software, not financial advice. Every figure here is measured from historical price data and can stop describing the future at any moment. Day trading loses money for the large majority of retail participants, and this tool's own measurements agree with that. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
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Analysing

Fetching data, running 34 strategies, and back-testing each one against this instrument's own history.